Tom Dyas drops to 21% in Kelowna mayor race - update

Dyas has lost ground sharply in prediction markets tracking the city's October 17 municipal election. After a 12 point slide in 3 days, Dyas's re-election odds fell from 32% to 21% on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the September 11 nomination deadline approaching. Both have moved in lockstep despite differing models. That 12% decline is one of the sharpest moves in any Canadian municipal race. Dyas touched as low as 19% before a slight recovery. Only 1 in 5 will be voting for Tom Dyas and that number is falling off a cliff. For a sitting mayor this outcome is almost unheard of. Ron Cannan polls at 50%. Also ran Emily Salsbury tracked 4%.

Nomination papers open September 1 and close September 11. The approach of that window often reshapes municipal races as new candidates confirm entry and others drop out. If Dyas numbers don't improve, and quickly, he is in trouble. Encumbent councillors usually have an advantage with voters due to name recognition. Undecided is around 25%. Kelowna voters have smelled the Dyas stench and punters have noticed. Dyas appears to be on the road to one and out. Amen we say. Here.