Tom Dyas drops to 21% in Kelowna mayor race - update

Ron Cannan has increased his lead in prediction markets to 55.8%. He gained 10 points in 3 days.

Dyas has lost ground sharply in prediction markets tracking the city's October 17 municipal election. After a 12 point slide in 3 days, Dyas's re-election odds fell from 32% to 21% on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the September 11 nomination deadline approaching. Both have moved in lockstep despite differing models. That 12% decline is one of the sharpest moves in any Canadian municipal race. Dyas touched as low as 19% before a slight recovery. Only 1 in 5 will be voting for Tom Dyas say gamblers. For a sitting mayor this is almost unheard of. Ron Cannan polls at 50%. Also ran Emily Salsbury tracked 4%.

Nomination papers open September 1 and close September 11. That window often reshapes municipal races as new candidates confirm entry and others drop out. If Dyas numbers don't improve, and quickly, he's in trouble. Encumbent councillors usually have an advantage with voters due to name recognition. Undecided is around 25%. Kelowna voters have smelled the Dyas stench and punters have noticed. Dyas appears to be on the road to one and out. Here.

We hit material where Tracy Gray was mentioned. One can never count out the ever ambitous Grays. B.C. Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay won the party’s leadership, and she is taking that ship right to the bottom. 6 MLAs have jumped off her bandwagon.

The Grays may be more interested in the mayor's chair and less interested in Kerry-Lynne Findlay these days.